Using parameters of piecewise approximation by exponents for epidemiological time series data analysis

Nowadays, detailed epidemiological data are available in the form of time series data. Theoretically, those data can be adequately described by different dynamic models containing exponential growth and exponential decay elements. Practically, parameters of those models are not constants - they can change in time because of many factors like changing hygiene policies, changing social behavior and vaccination. Hence, it was decided to use a piecewise approach: short sequential fragments of time series data are approximated by a function containing some parameters. Analysis of synthetic and real-life Coronavirus disease 2019 data demonstrates that the proposed approach can be used to evaluate the validity of mathematical epidemiological models under test for the different periods of time. More real-life data from different countries must be analyzed in order to recommend an optimal set of the smoothing parameters, and to evaluate the reliability of the proposed approach for the analysis of real-life data. © ISTE Ltd 2022.

Mortality among inpatients with bipolar disorders and COVID-19: a propensity score matching analysis in a national French cohort study.

BACKGROUND: It remains unknown whether coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with bipolar disorders (BDs) are at an increased risk of mortality. We aimed to establish whether health outcomes and care differed between patients infected with COVID-19 with BD and patients without a diagnosis of severe mental illness. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study of all patients with identified COVID-19 and respiratory symptoms who were hospitalized in France between February and June 2020. The outcomes were in-hospital mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We used propensity score matching to control for confounding factors. RESULTS: In total, 50 407 patients were included, of whom 480 were patients with BD. Patients with BD were 2 years older, more frequently women and had more comorbidities than controls without a diagnosis of severe mental illness. Patients with BD had an increased in-hospital mortality rate (26.6% v. 21.9%; p = 0.034) and similar ICU admission rate (27.9% v. 28.4%, p = 0.799), as confirmed by propensity analysis [odds ratio, 95% confidence interval (OR, 95% CI) for mortality: 1.30 (1.16-1.45), p < 0.0001]. Significant interactions between BD and age and between BD and social deprivation were found, highlighting that the most important inequalities in mortality were observed in the youngest [OR, 95% CI 2.28 (1.18-4.41), p = 0.0015] and most deprived patients with BD [OR, 95% CI 1.60 (1.33-1.92), p < 0.001]. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 patients with BD were at an increased risk of mortality, which was exacerbated in the youngest and most deprived patients with BD. Patients with BD should thus be targeted as a high-risk population for severe forms of COVID-19, requiring enhanced preventive and disease management strategies.

Real-world experience of rituximab biosimilar GP2013 in rheumatoid arthritis patients naïve to or switched from reference rituximab.

Randomized controlled trials showed high comparability of biosimilar rituximab (bs-RTX) GP2013 to biologic originator RTX (bo-RTX). Data on effectiveness of switching from bo-RTX to bs-RTX, starting therapy with bs-RTX, and bs-RTX drug survival in real-world setting are sparse. To explore long-term drug effectiveness and survival of bs-RTX GP2013 in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients both naïve to and mandatory switched from bo-RTX, and to clarify reasons for treatment cessation. Retrospective observational cohort study including RA outpatient clinic patients treated with bs-RTX between 2018 and 2021 in Norway. Patients were examined and monitored using recommended measures for disease activity and patient-reported outcomes (PROs). For description of population medians and interquartile range were used. Difference between observation times was assessed with Signed-Rank test, drug survival with Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Reasons for discontinuation were ascertained. Among 110 patients, at baseline, 88 were mandatory switched from bo-RTX and 22 were RTX-naïve. During 2-year follow-up, disease activity and PROs measures remained stable in switchers subgroup and improved in subgroup starting bs-RTX for the first time. Overall drug survival was 80.0% after 1 year and 57.7% after 2 years and was significantly higher in bs-RTX-switched than in bs-RTX-naïve patients (p = 0.036). Two most frequently reported reasons for drug discontinuation were remission (38.6%) and doctor's decision (27.1%). RA patients treated with bs-RTX had satisfactory treatment response and drug retention rates which supports equivalence of bs-RTX GP2013 to bo-RTX, both in patients naïve to and mandatory switched from bo-RTX.

Long-COVID in Patients with Cancer Previously Treated with Early Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Therapies in an Out-of-Hospital Setting: A Single-Center Experience.

The incidence of long COVID in a cohort of patients with cancer with or without previous treatment with early therapies anti-SARS-CoV-2 in an out-of-hospital setting have to be elucidated. We prospectively enrolled all patients treated for a solid tumor at the department of Medical Oncology of the Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo with a positive SARS-CoV-2 antigen or polymerase chain reaction test from January to September 2022 (Omicron surge). Ninety-seven patients answered the survey questions by telephone at least 12 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis in order to evaluate the incidence of long COVID symptoms. Only twelve patients (12.4%) reported long COVID. No significant difference between early therapies anti-SARS-CoV-2 31 and long COVID (p = 0.443) was seen. The female sex (p = 0.024) and diabetes mellitus (p = 0.014) are significantly associated with long COVID. No statistically significant difference between the two groups (Long COVID vs. No Long COVID) according to the time to nasal swab viral clearance (p = 0.078). The overlap between the symptoms related to the oncological disease/oncological treatment and the symptoms of long COVID is one of the main future challenges that oncologists will have to manage.

Effectiveness of the available early therapies in reducing severe COVID-19 in non-hospitalized patients with solid tumors on active treatment.

Emergency use authorization of drugs against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by regulatory authorities has provided new options to treat high-risk outpatients with mild-to-moderate Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We conducted an ambispective cohort study of patients with solid tumors on active treatment to examine the effectiveness of these drugs in preventing the progression to severe COVID-19. Sixty-nine patients with solid tumors (43 women, 26 men; median age 61, range 26-80) reported a laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Forty-nine patients received early therapy. Only one patient (14.5%) required hospitalization for COVID-19. As for safety, two patients (5.9%) reported nausea during nirmatrelvir/ritonavir. The majority of treated patients showed a reduced time to negative sample (73 vs. 18%, p = 0.0011) and shorter symptoms' duration (94 vs. 27%; p < 0.0001) compared to the patients not treated with the early COVID-19 therapies. Our data suggest that early therapies may reduce the morbidity of COVID-19 in patients with solid tumors.

Real-life experience of tofacitinib in patients with treatment-resistant rheumatoid arthritis: A 5-year follow-up: Monocentric experience.

OBJECTIVE: The present study aims to assess the short- and long-term effects of tofacitinib (TOFA) therapy on efficacy, safety, and drug retention rate patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) refractory to conventional synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (csDMARDs) and/or biological disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (bDMARDs). METHODS: Thirty-five patients with RA who received TOFA therapy for at least 3 months in rheumatology outpatient clinic between December 2015 and December 2020 were included in the study. The prospectively follow-up results of the patients obtained on the 6th month and 5th year are presented. Demographic characteristics of the patients, the disease activity score-28 for RA with erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS 28-4 [ESR]), change in DAS-28, health assessment questionnaire score, patient visual analog scale score, and laboratory parameters were recorded. The data at 6 months and 5 years of treatment were compared with baseline data. All side effects were recorded at each follow-up visit. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were used for analysis. RESULTS: Of the 35 patients, 23 received TOFA treatment after receiving ≥1 bDMARDs, while the remaining 12 patients received TOFA therapy were biologic naive. On the 6-month follow-up, DAS 28-4 (ESR) score and DAS28 improvement significantly decreased at the 6th months from baseline (p<0.001 and p<0.001, respectively), and moderate disease activity was achieved in 13 patients. High disease activity persisted in four patients. DAS28 improvement according to the EULAR response criteria was good response in 86% of the patients. DAS 28-4 (ESR) score and DAS28 improvement significantly decreased at 5 years from baseline (p<0.01 and p<0.001, respectively), and the moderate disease activity was achieved in 10 patients. High disease activity persisted in two patients. Drug retention rate at 5-year follow-up was 54% and the daily glucocorticoid therapy could be discontinued in 9 patients (47%). Three patients (15%) were tested positive for COVID-19. None of them required hospitalization and no deaths were occurred due to COVID-19. CONCLUSION: TOFA is effective and well-tolerated treatment options that reduce the need for steroids in patients with RA.

COVID-19 Cases Estimation in the UK using Improved SEIR Models

The paper suggests a machine learning algorithm with two modified SEIR models customized for the 2019-nCoV virus and vaccine uses to simulate the spread of COVID-19 in the UK (from Jan 2020 to March 2021) and make predictions of future cases. The algorithm uses COVID daily cumulative case data and second dose vaccine use data provided by the Public Health England as the training set and is capable of making relatively accurate short-term predictions of future COVID cases in the UK (before the delta and later variants of the virus starts spreading within the country). The obtained overall accuracy is above 80% for daily incremental case numbers in terms of the overall fit of the model to real-life data, and with an accuracy of more than 80% for estimation of daily incremental case numbers for 14 days period future prediction. The goal of this paper is to propose improved SEIR models capable of a more accurate simulation for COVID-19 modelling and estimation with various machine learning algorithms. © 2021 IEEE.

A cost of illness study of COVID-19 patients and retrospective modelling of potential cost savings when administering remdesivir during the pandemic "first wave" in a German tertiary care hospital.

PURPOSE: First detected in China in 2019, the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has rapidly spread globally. Since then, healthcare systems are exposed to major challenges due to scarce personnel and financial resources. Therefore, this analysis intended to examine treatment costs of COVID-19 inpatients in a German single centre during the first pandemic wave in 2020 from a healthcare payer perspective. Potential cost savings were assessed considering the administration of remdesivir according to the European Medicines Agency label. METHODS: A retrospective medical-chart review was conducted on COVID-19 patients treated at University Hospital Cologne, Germany. Patients were clustered according to an eight-category ordinal scale reflecting different levels of supplemental oxygen. Potential cost savings due to the administration of remdesivir were retrospectively modelled based on a reduced length of stay, as shown in the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial. RESULTS: 105 COVID-19 patients were identified. There was wide variability in the service data with median treatment costs from EUR 900 to EUR 53,000 per patient, depending on major diagnosis categories and clinical severity. No supplemental oxygen was needed in 40 patients (38.1%). Forty-three (41.0%) patients were treated in intensive-care units, and 30 (69.8%) received invasive ventilation. In our model, in-label administration of remdesivir would have resulted in costs savings of EUR 2100 per COVID-19 inpatient (excluding acquisition costs). CONCLUSION: We found that COVID-19 inpatients suffer from heterogeneous disease patterns with a variety of incurred G-DRG tariffs and treatment costs. Theoretically shown in the model, financial resources can be saved by the administration of remdesivir in eligible inpatients.

[Mortality in schizophrenia: Towards a new health scandal? COVID-19 and schizophrenia]. / Mortalité dans la schizophrénie : vers un nouveau scandale sanitaire ? COVID-19 et schizophrénie.

Patients with schizophrenia represent a vulnerable population who have been understudied in COVID-19 research. We aimed to establish whether health outcomes and care differed between patients with schizophrenia and patients without a diagnosis of severe mental illness. We conducted a population-based cohort study of all patients with identified COVID-19 and respiratory symptoms who were hospitalized in France between February and June 2020. Cases were patients who had a diagnosis of schizophrenia. Controls were patients who did not have a diagnosis of severe mental illness. The outcomes were in-hospital mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. A total of 50,750 patients were included, of whom 823 were schizophrenia patients (1.6%). The schizophrenia patients had an increased in-hospital mortality (25.6% vs. 21.7%; adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.30 [95% CI 1.08-1.56], p = 0.0093) and a decreased ICU admission rate (23.7% vs. 28.4%; aOR 0.75 [95% CI 0.62-0.91], p = 0.0062) compared to controls. Significant interactions between schizophrenia and age for mortality and ICU admission were observed (p = 0.0006 and p < 0.0001). Schizophrenia patients between 65 and 80 years had a significantly higher risk of death than controls of the same age (+7.89%). schizophrenia patients younger than 55 years had more ICU admissions (+13.93%) and schizophrenia patients between 65 and 80 years and older than 80 years had less ICU admissions than controls of the same age (-15.44% and -5.93%, respectively). Our findings report the existence of disparities in health and health care between schizophrenia patients and patients without a diagnosis of severe mental illness. These disparities differed according to the age and clinical profile of schizophrenia patients, suggesting the importance of personalized COVID-19 clinical management and health care strategies before, during and after hospitalization for reducing health disparities in this vulnerable population.

Disparities in Intensive Care Unit Admission and Mortality Among Patients With Schizophrenia and COVID-19: A National Cohort Study.

Patients with schizophrenia (SCZ) represent a vulnerable population who have been understudied in COVID-19 research. We aimed to establish whether health outcomes and care differed between patients with SCZ and patients without a diagnosis of severe mental illness. We conducted a population-based cohort study of all patients with identified COVID-19 and respiratory symptoms who were hospitalized in France between February and June 2020. Cases were patients who had a diagnosis of SCZ. Controls were patients who did not have a diagnosis of severe mental illness. The outcomes were in-hospital mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. A total of 50 750 patients were included, of whom 823 were SCZ patients (1.6%). The SCZ patients had an increased in-hospital mortality (25.6% vs 21.7%; adjusted OR 1.30 [95% CI, 1.08-1.56], P = .0093) and a decreased ICU admission rate (23.7% vs 28.4%; adjusted OR, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.62-0.91], P = .0062) compared with controls. Significant interactions between SCZ and age for mortality and ICU admission were observed (P = .0006 and P < .0001). SCZ patients between 65 and 80 years had a significantly higher risk of death than controls of the same age (+7.89%). SCZ patients younger than 55 years had more ICU admissions (+13.93%) and SCZ patients between 65 and 80 years and older than 80 years had less ICU admissions than controls of the same age (-15.44% and -5.93%, respectively). Our findings report the existence of disparities in health and health care between SCZ patients and patients without a diagnosis of severe mental illness. These disparities differed according to the age and clinical profile of SCZ patients, suggesting the importance of personalized COVID-19 clinical management and health care strategies before, during, and after hospitalization for reducing health disparities in this vulnerable population.